TON market capitalization shrinks by 24%: whales increase holdings against the trend, can Catchain 2.0 reverse the situation

In the first quarter of 2026, The Open Network’s native token TON faces ongoing price pressure. Since the beginning of the year, its market capitalization has shrunk by approximately 24%, with three consecutive months closing with monthly down candles. However, on-chain data presents a starkly different signal—top hundred wallet addresses have cumulatively net accumulated 189,730 TON during the same period, forming a clear divergence between price trends and holding behaviors. Meanwhile, the TON mainnet completed the Catchain 2.0 consensus upgrade, reducing transaction confirmation times from about 10 seconds to sub-second levels. This article provides a structured analysis of the current market landscape of TON from three dimensions: on-chain data, technical upgrades, and macro environment.

Market Cap Shrinking and Whale Accumulation Coexist

According to on-chain data platform Santiment, despite TON’s market cap decreasing by about 24% since the start of the year, the top 100 largest wallet addresses have continued to net buy over the past three months, accumulating a total of 189,730 TON. Since the local high point in early August 2025, TON’s market cap has evaporated roughly two-thirds, currently ranking 29th among crypto assets by market cap.

Meanwhile, this week, the TON mainnet officially activated the Catchain 2.0 upgrade. This is the first step in TON’s seven-phase “Make TON Great Again” roadmap, reducing transaction confirmation times to under 1 second, and compressing block intervals from approximately 2.5 seconds to 200–400 milliseconds.

From High Levels to the Upgrade Implementation

Reviewing the timeline from 2024 to early 2026 helps understand how the current market pattern has formed.

• 2024: TON’s annual increase reached 159.53%, with market attention rising alongside Telegram ecosystem integration.
• 2025: TON entered a deep correction, with a full-year decline of about 64.81%, dropping from a historical high of $8.25 to around $1.3.
• January to March 2026: TON experienced three consecutive months of downward closes, with a year-to-date decline of about 24%, and market cap continued to shrink.
• March 31, 2026: The core team began deploying the Sub-Second upgrade on the mainnet.
• April 8–9, 2026: Network validators completed voting on the upgrade plan, and Catchain 2.0 was officially activated network-wide.
• April 10, 2026: As of that day, TON’s price was $1.29, with a 24-hour increase of about 5.15%, and a market cap of approximately $3.19 billion.

Whale accumulation is not a short-term event but a persistent behavior throughout Q1 2026. The three-month net buying coinciding with three months of falling prices forms the core analytical focus of this article.

Data and Structural Analysis: Multi-Dimensional Perspectives on Price, Holdings, and Upgrades

Price and Market Cap Dimension

As of April 10, 2026, based on Gate market data, TON’s price is $1.29, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $1.47 million, a market cap of roughly $3.19 billion, and a fully diluted market cap of about $6.64 billion, with a market cap to fully diluted ratio of 48.02%. Circulating supply is approximately 2.47 billion tokens, with a total supply of about 5.15 billion tokens. The tokenomics are inflationary, with no maximum supply.

Over the past year, TON’s price has fallen by 59.15%, but recent signs of stabilization are evident—over the past 7 days, the price has rebounded by about 2.98%, and within 24 hours, it increased by approximately 5.15%, closely aligning with the timing of the Catchain 2.0 upgrade.

On-Chain Holdings Dimension

The behavior of the top hundred addresses accumulating 189,730 TON aligns with the long-term trend of whale addresses continuously amassing holdings since 2021. Previous on-chain analyses show that whale addresses marked as “frozen” have locked approximately 1.08B TON, representing a significant proportion of circulating supply. This recent accumulation further continues the pattern of large addresses holding concentrated positions.

Whale accumulation is often interpreted as a sign of long-term confidence in value, but the causal relationship between this behavior and price movement is not clear-cut. Whether accumulation causes price declines or is a result of price declines requires more time-series data for validation.

Technical Upgrade Dimension

The core change in Catchain 2.0 is the optimization of the consensus mechanism: final block confirmation time is compressed from about 10 seconds to roughly 1 second, and block intervals are shortened to 200–400 milliseconds. The block production speed increases by approximately six times, bringing the overall transaction experience close to real-time.

This upgrade directly improves application scenarios such as:

• Response speed of embedded mini-programs within Telegram;
• Instant on-chain payments;
• Execution efficiency of high-frequency on-chain activities.

Additionally, higher block frequency will increase validator rewards and strengthen staking incentives, positively impacting network security and decentralization.

Signal Game in the Divergence of Bulls and Bears

The current market shows a clear divergence of opinions on TON.

Santiment’s analysis points out that, although TON’s market cap has shrunk by two-thirds from its local high in August 2025, the continued accumulation by the top hundred wallets is a positive signal, indicating that once the overall crypto market recovers, TON could experience a relatively quick rebound. The technical upgrade adds fundamental support—reducing confirmation time to sub-second levels gives TON a new competitive advantage in blockchain performance.

Price has not shown a sustained positive response to the upgrade. After Catchain 2.0 activation, TON’s price briefly touched $1.32 but then quickly retreated to around $1.22, completing a pulse-like rise and fall within the same candlestick. This indicates limited market willingness to price in a single technical upgrade. Moreover, macro factors remain under pressure—Bitcoin hovers near $71,000, ETF fund outflows exceed $250 million, and overall risk appetite remains low.

Industry Impact Analysis: Repositioning in the Public Chain Competition Landscape

TON’s market performance and technological progress offer some reference value for the Layer 1 public chain competition:

Differentiation Reinforcement: TON’s deep integration with Telegram distinguishes it from purely technical-driven public chains. Catchain 2.0 compresses transaction confirmation to sub-second levels, enabling scenarios like payments, mini-games, and social interactions within the Telegram ecosystem to achieve near Web2 user experience. If this upgrade operates stably at the scale of tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of users, TON will occupy a clearer position in the “consumer-grade public chain” track.

Performance Competition Reshaping: Confirmation times compressed to under 1 second place TON in the top tier for transaction finality. However, whether this performance advantage translates into increased ecosystem activity depends on the implementation of subsequent phases—especially fee optimization and developer tools enhancement.

Impact of Holding Structure: Continuous whale accumulation indicates concentration of tokens among large addresses. High concentration can amplify upside potential in a bull market but may also increase liquidity risks in a bear market. This structural feature warrants ongoing monitoring.

Logical Deduction Based on Current Variables

Scenario 1: Macro Improvement and Upgrade Resonance. Assuming global liquidity loosens marginally, and overall crypto risk appetite rises, with Bitcoin breaking through $75,000 resistance. Under this scenario, TON could benefit from the combined effect of whale concentration and performance upgrade, resulting in a strong rebound potential. However, token unlocks each month releasing supply will limit the upward pace.

Scenario 2: Continued Macro Pressure, Limited Upgrade Effect. If macro uncertainties persist, and the crypto market remains in low-range oscillation, TON’s price may continue to be constrained by overall liquidity contraction. The positive effects of the upgrade could be offset by macro headwinds, leading to a phase of “fundamentals improving but price stagnating.”

Scenario 3: Ecosystem Data Explosion Post-Upgrade. If Catchain 2.0 significantly boosts on-chain activity within Telegram, with core metrics like daily active addresses and transaction counts surging structurally, TON could partially detach from macro liquidity dependence and develop a relatively independent trend.

Scenario 4: Supply Pressure Released Prematurely. If the 37 million tokens unlocked each month are rapidly sold during price rebounds, it could create a “rise-pressure-fall” cycle, causing the price to remain in a range for an extended period, despite positive on-chain signals.

The common assumption across these scenarios is that macro liquidity remains the most influential variable on TON’s price at this stage. Whale accumulation and technical upgrades are “internal factors” that improve fundamentals, but their valuation depends on “external factors.”

Conclusion

TON currently exhibits a typical structural divergence: market cap shrinks by 24% over three months, while top addresses net accumulated 189,730 TON; prices have fallen by about two-thirds from highs, yet the network performance has been elevated by Catchain 2.0. Connecting these elements yields three core observations: first, on-chain holdings and technical fundamentals are improving but have not yet been fully priced in; second, macro liquidity remains the dominant variable; third, the ecosystem effects of the upgrade require time to validate, and the pace of subsequent phases warrants ongoing attention. When “market cap shrinking” and “whale accumulation” appear simultaneously in the same timeframe, the market is often in the deepest phase of pricing divergence.