1. Core Analyst Viewpoint: "Long and Short Double Kill" in Range Volatility, Waiting for a Breakthrough

Conclusion: ETH is in a game of "macro suppression vs on-chain resilience," with no clear trend.

Price repeatedly tests within the $2,110 - $2,320 range. Heavy selling pressure above $2,300, strong support below $2,140. On-chain data shows large holders have started taking profits near $1,985, while stacked 25x high leverage short positions around $2,218 could trigger a short squeeze at any time. The current strategy is mainly "buy low and sell high within the range," with a follow-up if a breakout occurs.

2. Technical Analysis: Strong Resistance Above, Support Below

· Candlestick pattern: 4-hour chart shows an "ascending channel," but the daily chart faces resistance at **$2,300** with consecutive upper shadow candles, indicating weakening upward momentum. Currently, price struggles around EMA50 ($2,182), MACD shows a death cross signal, leaning toward short-term correction.
· Key support and resistance:
· Strong support: $2,140 - $2,160 (4-hour channel lower boundary and previous lows, vital support line); $2,110 (if broken, trend turns bearish).
· Strong resistance: $2,280 - $2,300 (multiple tests without break, "iron wall"); $2,340 (breakout level, dividing bull and bear).

3. News and Capital Flow: Macro Bearish vs On-Chain Bullish

· Macro bearish: US March CPI (3.4%) exceeds expectations, Fed rate cut expectations delayed to the second half of the year, US dollar index rebounds, suppressing risk assets.
· On-chain resilience: Q1 on-chain transactions reach 200 million, stablecoin inflows exceed $1 billion/week, fundamentals remain stable. Key variable: Ethereum Foundation recently sold 1,250 ETH (about $2.8 million), a small amount but impacting short-term market sentiment.

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4. Specific Trading Strategies (Range Volatility Strategy)

Core logic: Operate within $2,160 - $2,300, avoid chasing highs or lows.

Strategy 1: Buy low at the lower end of the range (high cost-performance)

· Entry point (Entry): $2,170 - $2,185 (near EMA50 support orders).
· Stop-loss (Stop Loss): **$2,145** (must be strictly below strong support at $2,150).
· Take profit (Take Profit):
· T1: $2,240 (reduce position by 50%)
· T2: $2,280 - $2,290 (close remaining position)
· Position size (Position): 3% - 5%.

Strategy 2: Short at the upper end of the range (contrarian on the left side)

· Entry point (Entry): $2,280 - $2,290 (near strong resistance at $2,300).
· Stop-loss (Stop Loss): **$2,315** (must exit if breaking above $2,300).
· Take profit (Take Profit):
· T1: $2,230
· T2: $2,190
· Position size (Position): 2% (light position to catch the top).

Strategy 3: Breakout follow-up orders (certain opportunity)

· Long condition: 4-hour candle closes firmly above $2,300.
· Entry: $2,305, stop-loss: $2,260, target: $2,380.
· Short condition: 4-hour candle closes below $2,140.
· Entry: $2,130, stop-loss: $2,180, target: $2,020.