I'm not very good at guessing the macro trends, like whether the expectations of interest rate cuts, the US dollar index, and risk assets should all rise or fall together. Honestly, I can't really figure it out... But when liquidity dries up, even the most promising "opportunities" on the chart can turn into traps. Recently, watching the funding rates and the basis between futures and spot prices fluctuate up and down, I can tell everyone's sentiment is very volatile.

My current rule is: survive first, then talk about bottom-fishing. Reduce your positions first, avoid using leverage if you can, better to miss a rebound than to gamble on "this is the last shot." Once the market isn't so empty and the rates aren't so extreme, then slowly add back. Anyway, the market will give a second chance to get in. That's it for now.