Gate Research: ETH Struggles to Break Out, Trend Strategy Delivers 240% Return
Gate Research: ETH Struggles to Break Out, Trend Strategy Delivers 240% Return
This report presents a multi-dimensional analysis of the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets from May 27 to June 9, 2025, integrating on-chain and derivatives indicators such as long-short ratios (LSR), open interest, and funding rates to examine capital sentiment and trend dynamics. The quantitative section focuses on the application of a "Moving Average Trend Breakout Strategy" across the top ten crypto assets by market cap (excluding stablecoins). Through systematic parameter optimization and historical backtesting, the strategy demonstrates strong trend identification and risk control capabilities. Compared to simply holding BTC or ETH, the strategy delivers superior return and drawdown control, with practical execution value and robust performance discipline.
Key Takeaways:
- BTC Range-Bound, ETH Struggles to Break Out: BTC traded in a narrow range between 100,000 and 110,000 USDT with relatively mild volatility. ETH repeatedly tested the 2,600 USDT level but failed to break out, reflecting weak follow-through momentum and cautious market sentiment.
- Divergence in Capital Positioning Between BTC and ETH: BTC open interest retreated from its May 20 peak of around $82 billion, indicating reduced leverage and cooling market enthusiasm during the pullback. In contrast, ETH maintain
- LSR Fluctuates, Market Direction Remains Unclear: BTC’s LSR stayed between 0.9 and 1.1 even during price declines, showing a lack of directional consensus and neutral sentiment. ETH’s LSR was more volatile, often dropping below 0.9, reflecting sustained short-side pressure and a lack of strong bullish conviction even on rebounds.
- Trend Strategy Outperforms, Achieves Over 240% Cumulative Return: The moving average breakout strategy applied to XRP/USDT (4-hour chart) achieved over 240% cumulative return, far exceeding the performance of simple BTC or ETH holding strategies. The strategy exhibited strong trend-following and drawdown control, especially during choppy or reversing markets.
- Market Outlook and Strategic Takeaways: With increased volatility and frequent long-side liquidations—highlighted by the near $1 billion in liquidations following the June 5 Musk–Trump clash—the market remains fragile.
Explore Today’s Highlights → Gate Research: ETH Struggles to Break Out, Trend Strategy Delivers 240% Return
Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides readers with in-depth content, including technical analysis, trending insights,
market reviews, industry research, trend forecasts, and macroeconomic policy analysis.
Disclaimer
Investing in the cryptocurrency market involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from such investment decisions.
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