Trung Kim: Thứ tự và tác động của chính sách 2.0 của Trump

The Jin10 data on December 27th stated that CITIC believes that Trump’s four-year presidency may be based on two underlying logics: first, correcting the policies of the Biden administration, mainly reflected in controlling inflation, restricting immigration, and reducing government spending; second, implementing mercantilist economic strategies, emphasizing protecting domestic industries and promoting exports through high tariffs, which is in contrast to the trade liberalism advocated by the United States after World War II. CITIC believes that Trump may adopt a policy sequence of ‘tariffs first, tax cuts later, saving money first, and spending money later’, taking the lead in implementing policies in the four areas of tariffs, immigration, energy, and foreign affairs and defense, while tax cuts may be delayed or postponed due to the expansion of fiscal deficits. Under the benchmark scenario, it is predicted that Trump may push for the landing of some tariffs in the second quarter of 2025, and the pace may be gradual. At the same time, the Republican Party may use the budget reconciliation process in 2025 to promote legislation, passing the first bill involving immigration, energy, and defense spending within 100 days after Trump takes office, which may include content on cutting fiscal expenditures. The tax reduction plan may be implemented in the second bill, possibly in the second half of the year.