XRP Price Prediction: The "Fear" Index and ETF Optimism Create Market Divergence, Historically Best Quarter Q4 Bullish Target of $30

The price of XRP has been rising continuously today, but the market sentiment indicators are diverging from this trend, with the Fear and Greed Index having fallen into the "Fear" zone. This pattern of price increase with declining sentiment is similar to the movement seen before the last major market peak from 2020 to 2021, sparking debate on whether XRP is about to reach its cyclical peak. Nevertheless, the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC was settled in 2025 for $125 million, eliminating a major catalyst for regulatory uncertainty. Market optimism is focused on the expectations for the approval of an XRP ETF, with traders on Polymarket believing there is a 99% chance it will be approved before December 31st. Analysts estimate that the XRP ETF could attract between $4 billion and $8 billion in inflows. Technically, XRP's price is consolidating within a descending triangle from $2.70 to $2.96, and holding the support level of $2.72 to $2.75 will maintain its upward potential. Historically, the fourth quarter has been the best-performing quarter for XRP, averaging a 51% rise.

Divergence in Sentiment Indicators: A Warning of Historical Patterns Reappearing

The price trend of XRP is in stark contrast to traditional market sentiment indicators, raising concerns about a market top:

• Price and sentiment divergence: Although the XRP price continues to rise, the XRP Fear and Greed Index has fallen into the "fear" territory, with CFGI data showing that XRP entered "daily fear" on September 1.
• Similarities at the cycle peak: This "price rise, low sentiment" pattern is consistent with the performance before the major market peak in the last bull market cycle from 2020 to 2021.
• Experts remind: The fear and greed index is based on market psychology rather than fundamentals, so its predictive ability is limited.

Regulatory risk recedes and ETF optimism surges

The resolution of the Ripple lawsuit and the high expectations for the approval of the ETF are the main factors supporting the current price and eliminating historical risks:

• Resolution of SEC lawsuit: The lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC was settled in 2025 for $125 million, eliminating the biggest regulatory uncertainty from the previous bull market, making the current cycle different from historical risks.
• ETF approval probability 99%: Market optimism regarding XRP ETF approval is at an all-time high, with Polymarket data showing traders pricing the probability of approval before December 31 at as high as 99%.
• Fund inflow forecast: Cointelegraph estimates that the approval of the XRP ETF could attract $4 billion to $8 billion in fund inflows, potentially greatly changing the price trajectory of XRP. However, analysts also warn of the risk of a 'sell the news' pullback, as much of the optimism may have already been reflected in the current price of $2.91.

Technical Outlook and Seasonal Patterns

XRP price is technically at a critical juncture, while the seasonal performance of Q4 provides additional bullish justification:

• Technical consolidation: XRP price has been consolidating in a descending triangle since July, with resistance level close to $2.96 and support level around $2.70.
• Key breakout point: Analyst Hardy emphasized that as long as the price remains above 2.72 to 2.75 USD, the upward potential still exists. A closing price above 3.00 USD could trigger a breakout towards 3.25 to 3.42 USD.
• High target: Another analyst, XForceGlobal, believes that prolonged consolidation may build momentum for a stronger breakout, with optimistic targets even discussing $20 to $30.
• Seasonal Bullishness: Although historically October has not been a strong month for XRP (with negative returns recorded in 7 out of the last 12 Octobers), the fourth quarter has always been its best-performing quarter, with an average rise of up to 51%.

Conclusion

The current trend of XRP is a microcosm of a market signal filled with contradictions: the price continues to rise driven by expectations of ETF and regulatory clarity, while sentiment has fallen into "fear" due to memories of historical patterns at cycle tops. The resolution of the lawsuit has removed the biggest "black swan" risk for XRP, allowing it to focus on the institutional capital potential brought by ETF in Q4. In the coming weeks, whether the price can break through the key resistance of the descending triangle and whether market sentiment can keep up with the price will determine if XRP can, as history shows, stage another significant "Uptober" rally at the end of the year.

Against the backdrop of the probability of XRP ETF approval reaching 99%, do you think the "sell the news" pullback risk is really lower than in previous cycles, or is the potential influx of 4-8 billion dollars enough to absorb short-term selling pressure?