The four-year cycle law of Bitcoin is facing its ultimate test, as seasoned trader Peter Brandt predicts that BTC is expected to hit $185,000.

Bitcoin prices surged above $126,100 on Monday, setting a new historical record. This breakthrough occurred just a day after the predicted peak cycle date proposed by veteran trader Peter Brandt (which was last Sunday), putting Bitcoin's famous "four-year cycle" mathematical model to its fourth historical test. According to Brandt's cycle theory, this bull run peak was supposed to occur last Sunday, but the continued price rise has brought a 50% possibility of a "cycle break" to the market. If the cycle law fails, Brandt predicts that Bitcoin prices could soar to a new high range of $150,000 to $185,000. With the introduction of new factors such as institutional Spot ETFs, there has been intense debate in the market about whether the cycle can still dominate price movement.

Brandt Cycle Law Faces Setback: Historical Patterns May Be "Dramatically" Broken

The Bitcoin cycle theory proposed by veteran trader Peter Brandt is based on a clear mathematical pattern that has perfectly held true in the past three market cycles, namely that the time length from "cycle low to halving" is equal to the time length from "halving to cycle high."

· Calculation of the law: According to Brandt's analysis, the current cycle low of Bitcoin occurred on November 9, 2022, which is 533 days away from the halving day on April 20, 2024. According to the "equal length" law, the price peak of this cycle should fall 533 days after the halving day, which is just past last Sunday (around October 6, 2025).

· Test of the Cycle: Historical data shows that in all three previous market cycles, Bitcoin has followed this structure: the distance from the low to the halving and from the halving to the high point is exactly equal. The current cycle is the fourth test of this theory.

· Brandt's prediction: Although Bitcoin briefly broke through $126,100 on Monday, marking that the peak date set by Brandt was not strictly adhered to, he holds a 50/50 neutral stance on whether the cycle will break. If this historical pattern is broken, Brandt expects a "dramatic" price movement, with Bitcoin's next target range being $150,000 to $185,000.

Market Structure Change: Institutions Adopt Restructuring Cycle Dynamics

As Bitcoin successfully set a new high above $126,100, the debate about whether its "four-year cycle" still holds is heating up. Some analysts believe that new market dynamics have diminished the persuasive power of historical cycle patterns.

· Seasonality and Cyclicality: Independent analyst Rekt Capital previously stated in July that if the 2020 market pattern is followed, the Bitcoin market may peak around October, which is relatively close to Brandt's time window.

· Impact of Institutional Factors: Unlike previous cycles, the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and the continued adoption of Bitcoin by corporate treasuries represent new market drivers, changing the previously retail-dominated market structure. Saad Ahmed, head of mainstream CEX in the Asia-Pacific region, believes that market cycles stem from human excitement and overexpansion, followed by corrections to a balanced state after a crash, which means that the essence of cycles lies in human emotions and behaviors.

· Wider Price Forecast: Economist Timothy Peterson simulated data from the past decade and estimated that the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $140,000 by the end of October is 50%. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes and Unchained market research director Joe Burnett both view $250,000 as a long-term target before the end of 2025.

Long-term risks emerge: Quantum computing and Satoshi's massive holdings

In addition to the uncertainty brought about by short-term price cycles, market experts have also begun to pay attention to the risk factors that pose a potential threat to the long-term narrative of Bitcoin.

· Threat of Quantum Computing: Peter Brandt pointed out that quantum computing is a potential risk to Bitcoin. Capriole founder Charles Edwards recently raised questions about this threat, specifically whether quantum computers could potentially crack Bitcoin's encryption technology. However, some experts are optimistic about this; for example, F2Pool co-founder Chun Wang believes that this necessary technology may still be decades away from practical application.

· Satoshi Nakamoto's "Ultimate Risk": Brandt also pointed out that the estimated 1.1 million Bitcoins held by Satoshi Nakamoto are the "ultimate risk" of this cryptocurrency. This massive wealth is distributed across multiple wallets that have never been moved, and has been dormant for about 15 years. If these tokens are transferred, it could create significant selling pressure in the market. Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz tends to believe that Satoshi Nakamoto has passed away, which may explain why this vast fortune has never been touched.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has successfully broken through its historical high, posing a strong challenge to Peter Brandt's 533-day cycle theory. Whether this mathematical pattern ultimately continues or is broken, the Bitcoin market has entered a critical observation period. If the cycle is broken, it indicates that the influx of institutional funds and new demand may drive this current bull run to heights far exceeding historical expectations, moving towards $150,000 to $185,000. The price movement in the coming weeks will provide us with clearer guidance. While investors closely monitor price trends, they should also cautiously assess the effectiveness of cycle theory, the sustainability of institutional funds, and potential long-term risks such as quantum computing and Satoshi's massive holdings.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.