1.8 billion USD cash out, can Bitcoin take it after?

The Bitcoin market is showing signs of fatigue, with a large amount of capital flowing out, and long-term holders becoming the market makers for selling, leading to a gradual weakening of market confidence. (Background: Why did Bitcoin reach 103,000 USD? This week, billions in liquidations triggered a massive withdrawal of ETF funds.) (Additional background: Can 6 billion USD destroy Bitcoin? Finance professor: The cost of a BTC “51% Attack” is not that high.) Bitcoin is exhibiting a kind of fatigue that usually appears before significant directional fluctuations. On October 15, traders realized 1.8 billion USD in profits, marking one of the largest profit realization days since the early summer of this year. On the same day, there was also 430 million USD in realized losses. This data confirms the general sentiment in the market since the weekend's big dump: momentum is gradually fading, and a large amount of capital is flowing out. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is below 110,000 USD, having cumulatively dropped over 10% since early October. This drop is not gradual but is due to the rapid closing of positions by investors who entered in early 2025 and have held until now. Long-term holders (those holding for over 3 months) are the main force behind this dump, with their realized profits being over six times that of short-term holders. Even during last week's big drop, long-term holders remained in a state of deep profit, which indicates they are not panic selling. They are conducting risk reduction operations: choosing to take profits when the market weakens rather than waiting for a rebound. After market consolidation, a certain degree of profit-taking is considered routine, and hundreds of millions of USD taken in profits in a single day can be interpreted as healthy capital rotation. However, as observed since early October, when this capital outflow forms a sustained trend, its nature shifts from “dispersed selling” to beginning to show characteristics of “market exhaustion.” The scale of realized losses is also rising. Although losses are currently still within a “controllable” range, they have climbed alongside the scale of profit realizations. If realized losses continue to grow in tandem with profit realizations, it may indicate that risk reduction operations are spreading from short-term holders to the entire market. This spread may be highly contagious, as currently half of Bitcoin's short-term holders are in a state of unrealized losses. On-chain data analysis platform Checkonchain shows that unrealized losses currently account for about 2% of market capitalization; although the scale is not large, the speed of increase is rapid. If Bitcoin's price falls below 100,000 USD, this proportion could likely rise to 5%, a level sufficient to turn the current market's “unease” into full-blown panic. Historically, only during a complete bear market stage does the circulating supply show more than 30% in a loss state, and the current market is dangerously close to this threshold. If buyers can successfully defend the 100,000 USD mark, Bitcoin may reset its short-term cost benchmark and restore bullish momentum. If it falls below 100,000 USD, the cost benchmark for a new round of buyers will collapse, and all short-term circulating supply will turn into a loss state. This does not necessarily mean the end of this cycle, but it could further expand the pullback to 80,000 USD, a retracement of about 35% from the historical highest price (ATH). Considering the current scale of selling pressure, Bitcoin's stability is still noteworthy, but the signals conveyed on-chain are clear: market confidence is continuously weakening. Long positions are still holding the line, but each downward K-line makes it increasingly difficult for outsiders to judge whether they are “buying the dips” or “catching falling knives.” Related reports: Timeline》The process of how the BCH group’s Chen Zhi was “hacked” by the U.S. government for 127,000 Bitcoins! Perhaps there will never be a truth. Bridgewater's Dalio: My Bitcoin holding ratio has remained unchanged! It's “not cost-effective” to save wealth with stablecoins. <18 billion USD in profit realizations, can Bitcoin withstand it afterwards?> This article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.