Trading Moment: Expectations Rise for RMB to "Break 7", Bitcoin Needs to Break 96,000 to Confirm Trend Reversal

Daily Market Key Data Review and Trend Analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Watch

The US labor market has recently shown conflicting signals. Last week, initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 191,000, the lowest since last September, indicating labor market resilience. However, continuing claims remain high at 1.94 million, reflecting structural challenges for the unemployed to find new jobs. Against this backdrop, market expectations for a Fed rate cut at the December 10 meeting have risen to 87%. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett predicts the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points. In addition, the Fed’s quantitative tightening policy has ended, and the market expects a “reserve management purchase” plan of about $35 billion per month to start as early as January next year to inject liquidity. Although officials stress this is not a new round of quantitative easing, investors still see it as a dovish signal. Meanwhile, the size of the US Treasury market has surpassed $30 trillion for the first time. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates this month, which would be the highest in 28 years.

The RMB has recently benefited from a weaker US dollar, renewed appeal of Chinese assets, and strong corporate FX settlement demand, with a significant appreciation trend. The market is actively debating whether it can break the 7.0 level in the short term. Mainstream opinion sees a high probability of breaking 7.0, but some analysts point out that even if it does, staying above this level is uncertain, and the PBOC may aim to maintain two-way volatility. In addition, this Friday’s upcoming US PCE inflation data will be a key reference for the global economy and Fed policy.

In the field of artificial intelligence, market competition is heating up. Known as “China’s No.1 GPU stock,” Moore Threads surged 502% on its first day of listing on the STAR Market, with its market cap once exceeding 300 billion yuan and a single lot profit of nearly 270,000 yuan, highlighting the capital market’s high expectations for domestic AI chips. Moore Threads was founded by a former Nvidia core team and plans to use nearly 8 billion yuan raised from the IPO to accelerate the development of next-generation AI training and inference chips. Meanwhile, industry giant Nvidia faces fierce competition as well. Founder Jensen Huang said he feels the pressure of “only 30 days from bankruptcy” every day. To counter rivals like Google TPU, Nvidia recently published a technical blog claiming its GB200 NVL72 system can boost top open-source AI model performance by up to 10x and revealed major cloud providers like AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure are accelerating deployment of this system. In addition, Nvidia, holding $60.6 billion in cash and short-term investments as of the end of October, has launched a series of large-scale strategic investments, including $2 billion in chip design company Synopsys and $10 billion in Anthropic, to further consolidate its AI ecosystem.

Bitcoin prices recently pulled back after hitting the yearly opening level of $93,500, raising concerns about the next move. Analysts believe Bitcoin needs to break above $96,000 to confirm a trend reversal, with resistance concentrated between $93,500 and $100,000. Material Indicators data shows that if Bitcoin fails to hold $93,500, the market may further test $68,000. On-chain data indicates the current market structure is similar to early bear market conditions in Q1 2022. Glassnode says if the key support at $81,500 is lost, a deep correction could follow. Analyst CyrilXBT notes that if Bitcoin breaks out of the $95,000–$100,000 range, a new round of gains will start; otherwise, it could fall to the low $70,000s. Technically, a bearish flag pattern targets $68,150, and liquidation data shows that around $3 billion in cumulative short positions would be liquidated if Bitcoin hits $96,000, with liquidations exceeding $7 billion if it breaks $100,000.

However, there is also strong bullish sentiment in the market. Analyst Murad, known for the “Meme Supercycle” theory, is highly optimistic, believing this bull market will extend to 2026, with Bitcoin peaking at $150,000–$200,000. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse predicts the price will reach $180,000 by the end of 2026. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink revealed that some sovereign wealth funds are gradually increasing their positions as Bitcoin pulls back from the $126,000 high to the $80,000 range, establishing long-term holdings. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost believes Bitcoin needs to recover the long-term holder cost basis of about $96,956 to solidify market confidence, while JPMorgan says whether the strategy can hold will be key for short-term Bitcoin prices. If market conditions remain stable, Bitcoin could rise to $170,000 in the next 6–12 months.

Ethereum recently broke the key structure at $3,200, and analysts are generally bullish, believing that if momentum continues, Ethereum could see a 20% gain, targeting $3,650 or even $3,900. On the trading side, Cold Blooded Shiller sees current momentum as upward, with the top area slightly above $3,300. Analyst Lennaert Snyder notes ETH has broken the $3,230 resistance, with the next target at $3,440. Analyst Ted points out that if ETH breaks the $3,300–$3,400 range, it could reach $3,800. CryptoQuant data shows retail investors are actively accumulating below $2,700; if the price drops to $3,000, $2 billion in liquidations will be triggered, while a rise to $3,300 will face $700 million in liquidation pressure. Additionally, Ethereum has officially activated the Fusaka upgrade, reducing L2 gas fees by another 60%. Vitalik emphasized that the PeerDAS technology introduced in Fusaka is “real sharding” and a milestone since the network’s launch in 2015. Although L1 scalability is still imperfect, this lays the foundation for future blockchain design.

2. Key Data (as of December 5, 13:00 HKT)

(Source: CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $92,045 (YTD -1.68%), daily spot volume $45.63 billion
• Ethereum: $3,167 (YTD -5.16%), daily spot volume $23.87 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 28 (Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei
• Market Dominance: BTC 58.7%, ETH 12.2%
• Upbit 24h Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL, SXP
• 24h BTC Long/Short Ratio: 48.84% / 51.16%
• Sector Performances: Crypto market broadly pulls back, PayFi and DePIN sectors down nearly 4%
• 24h Liquidation Data: 86,361 traders liquidated worldwide, total liquidations $243 million, including $83.76 million in BTC, $73.61 million in ETH, and $7.38 million in XRP

3. ETF Flows (as of December 4)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$195 million
• Ethereum ETF: -$41.57 million
• Solana ETF: +$4.59 million
• XRP ETF: +$12.84 million

4. Today’s Outlook

• OKX will delist ACA, CLV, FOXY, PSTAKE, RACA spot trading
• Stable mainnet will launch at 21:00 on December 8
• The merged company of Twenty One Capital and CEP is expected to list on the NYSE on December 9
• Jito(JTO) will unlock about 11.31 million tokens at 8:00 am on February 7, accounting for 1.13% of total supply, worth about $5.4 million
• US September Core PCE YoY: previous 2.9%, expected 2.8%
• US September PCE YoY: previous 2.8%, expected 2.7%

Top 100 coins by market cap, best performers today: Zcash +9.6%, MYX Finance +6.8%, Beldex +2.9%, TRON +2.2%, Sky (formerly Maker) +1.7%.

5. Hot News

• Bitmine reportedly bought another 41,946 ETH worth about $130 million five hours ago
• Aster team burned $80 million in repurchased funds on-chain
• Well-known investor Jez San’s related address withdrew over $15 million in altcoins from Coinbase Prime
• Matrixport withdrew 3,805 BTC from Binance in the past 24 hours
• US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 was 191,000, expected 220,000
• Russia’s second-largest bank VTB recommends allocating 7% of assets to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies
• Aster released its roadmap for the first half of 2026: Aster Chain mainnet to launch in Q1
• Solana Mobile will launch the SKR token in January 2026, with 30% allocated for airdrop
• US Treasury debt surpasses $30 trillion, doubling since 2018
• Probability of Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 87%
• Jupiter: WET token public sale sold out, HumidiFi project raised a total of $5.57 million