The first major employment data after the government shutdown hit the market like a slap in the face.

The November ADP report showed that US private sector jobs not only failed to increase, but actually saw a net decrease of 32,000. Just last month, jobs were still growing, so this turnaround came out of nowhere.

What's even more worrying are the structural issues: small businesses are bleeding badly. Companies with fewer than 50 employees slashed 120,000 positions in November. And what about the big companies with over 500 employees? They actually added 90,000 jobs. It's a tale of two extremes—small businesses really can't hold on anymore.

By industry, manufacturing and tech managed to hold steady, but hiring in the service sector fell off a cliff. Sectors most dependent on consumer spending—restaurants, hotels, and retail—saw the deepest cuts.

**Rate Cut Expectations Maxed Out**

With such dismal employment data, the Fed has to rethink its monetary policy immediately. Inflation has barely budged this year, and now jobs are tanking—so the rate cuts that started in September look set to continue.

Since then, the Fed has already cut rates twice. After today's bleak numbers, the market is almost certain there will be another cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting.

Futures market pricing now shows nearly a 90% probability of a 0.25% rate cut. With the job market still starving for help, the Fed has little choice but to act.

**Risk Assets Go Wild**

As soon as rate cut expectations heated up, speculative capital pounced on the opportunity.

Stocks surged that day—the Dow soared more than 480 points, and the S&P 500 rose 0.45%. Gold was even more dramatic, breaking through $4,200 with a 1.2% jump, though it later pulled back.

The crypto market didn't sit still either. Bitcoin hit a high of $93,555 after the jobs report, rising nearly 3% in 24 hours. Whenever easing is expected, money pours into risk assets—the logic is as simple and brutal as ever.

With employment data this bad, it's definitely not good news for the real economy. But for traders? That's a whole different story—if the Fed is forced to rescue the market and liquidity loosens, what's supposed to rise will keep rising.