12.16 Miao Laobiao BTC/ETH Morning Strategy
No sleep tonight! The US non-farm payroll data is coming soon, and the crypto world will face a "heaven and hell" test
Tonight, the financial markets are destined to have a sleepless night—the US November non-farm employment data will be announced soon. This delayed report is the first employment "report card" released after the US government shutdown of 43 days. Every change in the numbers could trigger a dramatic "heaven and hell" reversal in the crypto scene!
Why does this non-farm payroll data so strongly affect the market nerves?
Special backgro

Last night's market also arrived as expected, declining from the high point of 90440 observed yesterday morning, retreating from that level. Later in the evening, the market fell to a low of 88412. Currently, it is in a phase of technical correction. Ethereum's price action follows the same pattern, facing resistance at the high of 3128 before pulling back to around 3048.
From the current chart, the four-hour timeframe shows four consecutive bearish candles, closely following the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. All indicators suggest no signs of reversal in the short term. On the one-hour

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Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates
In the short term, there is a "divergence of sentiment after positive news," with core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum possibly rallying first before pulling back ("buy the rumor, sell the fact"). In the long term, three factors need to align: first, the incremental funds brought by global monetary easing; second, institutional allocation through compliant channels like spot ETFs; third, supply-side changes in the crypto industry’s halving cycle. Overall, a sharp, sustained rally is unlikely. Amid high volatility, innovative sectors sensitive to interest ra

Gate's spot trading volume in November exceeded $163 billion, and this data is incredibly impressive! On one hand, it shows that the exchange's efforts in asset listings and user expansion have yielded results. On the other hand, it also reflects that even if the overall market capitalization of the crypto market pulls back, trading activity in popular sectors such as VC-backed new projects, L2, AI/Crypto, and other segments can still support local liquidity. However, whether this volume dominated by short-term trading can be sustained depends on the future direction of macro liquidity and reg

The sideways pattern remains unbroken; the outlook for high-level longs remains unchanged
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and Bitcoin surged but failed to break above the 95,000 level, directly confirming that the rebound over the past two weeks has not opened up upward space.
Looking back at November 28, Bitcoin surged to 93,100, and after more than ten days, the high only reached 94,600. If a trend-based strong rebound were to occur, it should break through 98,000. Currently, the sideways pattern remains unchanged, and the probability of a four-hour decline continues to

If you don't understand the cycle of trading cryptocurrencies, ten more years of trading is futile
The crypto market is a cyclical market, divided into 5 cycles and 2 stages. Among these, three cycles form a bear market, and 2 form a bull market stage. The cyclical repetition of these five cycles constitutes the trend of the crypto market.
The five cycles in the crypto market are: decline cycle, bottoming cycle, consolidation cycle, rally cycle, and distribution cycle.
In 2023, we are in the bottoming cycle; in 2024, in the consolidation cycle; at the beginning of 2025, in the rally cycle; and