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Looking back over the past three months, every major delivery has been accompanied by the Monday reversal curse: a surge in September, a plunge in October, a small dip in November. So after tomorrow’s super delivery day with 23 billion, how will the Monday script unfold?
Tomorrow’s year-end options with a notional value of 23 billion are about to settle.. This is a giant on an annual scale, and also the largest nominal amount delivery in cryptocurrency history.
This wave of settlement will have a huge impact on subsequent liquidity. Here are a few aspects:
1. Release of margin liquidity..
A large number of options sellers, in order to maintain these positions, have pledged huge amounts of BTC or USDT as collateral on exchanges.
After settlement, these locked funds will be instantly liberated. The premiums for unexercised rights will also revert to funds after clearing, which also constitutes potential market buying power.
This released liquidity usually does not leave the market but is rebalanced.
Considering this is year-end settlement, many institutions will redeploy funds for their 2026 positions, which often brings a new round of buying or selling.
Meanwhile, market makers for options, after their options positions are settled.. the spot or futures positions used for delta hedging will also need some degree of closing and releasing..
As for which direction these hedging positions are in, I asked AI for data, and it gave me this conclusion:
【Based on data estimates, the overall market net Delta is about -22,428 BTC (net short delta for buyers).
Market makers, as counterparties, hold an equivalent positive delta and hedge through spot/futures short positions (about 22,428 BTC short positions).
Impact of settlement: after expiration, options positions disappear, market makers need to close out short hedges (buy back), creating potential buying pressure that could push prices higher.】
This is AI’s conclusion.. but it actually involves many unrigorous assumptions..
I think it’s not that simple and straightforward.. First, not all hedging positions will be closed and released; some will roll over directly into the next far-month options..
Some are hedged with futures, which are also directly settled through futures..
Even if there is a definite buying pressure, the market has already priced in such a simple conclusion.. So I only include this AI analysis here for validation.. not as a bullish reference..
But if tomorrow’s market does turn upward, I will continue to verify this theory in the upcoming major monthly options.
2. Major gamma limit解除
Let’s look at the current GEX: around 89k~90k, still in a highly positive gamma state, and this positive gamma is largely influenced by tomorrow’s wave of options. (Figure 1, Figure 2)
In our analysis over the past 1-2 weeks, we’ve been consistently mentioning the 90k positive gamma zone (positive gamma options market makers’ hedging behavior will greatly dampen price movements).
So every time it approaches 90k, it can’t break through.. I believe the positive gamma influence is one of the reasons..
After 4 PM (Beijing time) tomorrow, these market makers’ options positions will end.. they will no longer need to hedge these positions. The positive gamma zone will be temporarily解除..
This is the “cover-off” effect of the 90k level I mentioned in recent days..
(Whether a new positive gamma zone will appear after rolling over depends on the GEX update after 4-5 PM tomorrow)
Thus, when liquidity is released + hedging positions are解除 + gamma limits are解除, the price may experience a retaliatory one-sided move.. (direction unknown)
However, it may not immediately move after settlement..
Looking at history, we can review the trend after major options settlements in September, October, and November.. (Figure 3)
September 26, 2025, monthly and quarterly options, with a notional amount of about 18 billion.
After Friday’s settlement, the market remained sideways over the weekend, then started rallying early Monday, moving from 108k to 126k..
October 31, 2025, monthly options, with a notional amount of over 13 billion..
After Friday’s settlement, sideways over the weekend, then a sharp drop early Monday, from 110k to 100k..
November 28, 2025, monthly options, with a notional amount of over 13 billion..
After Friday’s settlement, sideways over the weekend, then a sharp drop early Monday, from 91k to 84k..
So, after tomorrow’s settlement, it can also be further verified.. whether the market will still remain sideways until after Monday, when everyone returns from Christmas holidays, and then a new wave begins on the 29th?
I personally have a bias: the key will be whether the breakthrough occurs in the critical zones of 85k and 90k..
The breakout after this wave of options settlement may not necessarily be a false breakout...