AxelAdlerJr

Version 1.6 with the upgraded RISK ON/OFF algorithm has been deployed to the test servers. Tomorrow we’ll release it to all users. Access to the Terminal is available through a subscription on my Substack.

Negative issuance-adjusted demand means the market has not absorbed new BTC fast enough over the past 30 days. Today’s move was driven by short liquidations rather than sustained spot demand.

$74К
That is the average entry price of US Bitcoin ETF holders. And BTC just touched it.
What happens here will shape the next move.
Morning Brief 147 👇

WTI crude oil futures surged 9.3% and rose above $104 per barrel, recovering last week's losses after President Donald Trump announced a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of weekend talks with Iran.

BTC just reset its leverage - without losing price.
OI dropped 7%. Funding flipped negative. Spot is still holding above $70K.
That is not a confirmed breakout.
But it is exactly the kind of setup that can trap late shorts fast.
Full breakdown ☕️ ADLER AM #146 👇

Bitcoin looks less fragile.
That does not mean the bottom is in.
Weekly Engine breaks down what all 7 layers are saying and why this still may be just a bear market pause, not a confirmed turn.
Weekly Engine #91 👇

Funding Rates🩸

One market stress signal just normalized. Another snapped back within 48 hours.
Exchange outflow peaked at -15,216 BTC in March and is now near zero. ETF flows crashed -29,539 BTC on Apr 7, then recovered to +1,835 BTC on a 7D basis by Apr 9.
Stabilization is here. Impulse is not.
☕️ Morning Brief 145 👇

Seller pressure eased. But the reversal still isn't confirmed.
Net Taker Volume 30DMA rebounded to +0.73 after touching zero. Liquidations Dominance 30DMA is sitting near multi-month lows at 9.4.
The structure looks cleaner. Whether that turns into a real shift is the key question.
Full breakdown ADLER AM #144👇

Now live 👇

Bitcoin bounced hard.
Futures are already signaling recovery.
Market structure still refuses to confirm it.
Morning Brief 143 👇

🔴 Bitcoin funding rate just dropped to -0.43% the most negative reading in two weeks.
At the same time, the Regime Score flipped positive: +14.1 after 13 straight bearish days.
Two signals. Opposite directions. One of them is wrong.
Morning Brief #141 - full breakdown at the link 👇

Oil prices climbed back above $100 per barrel on Thursday after President Trump said the war with Iran could last for several weeks and warned that the United States would strike Iran very hard. Both WTI and Brent rose by more than 6%, respectively.

Fear & Greed is now showing almost the same sentiment structure as in 2022. But the 365DMA is still too high for a full bear-market reset.