KevinSimback
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Apparently there are some founders who need to hear this
If you are raising a community round, THE VALUATION SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN THE LAST INSTITUTIONAL ROUND
Few exceptions
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I agree with the perspective that crypto markets are structurally damaged from 10/10
That means it will take some time to heal and patience is required
But don’t let that discourage you on the industry itself - crypto has never had more tailwinds
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Back in the gym today for first time in 3 weeks after recovering from surgery
Not gunna lie it’s tough going easy, but feels great to be back at it!
💪💪💪
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For once it was not longs getting liquidated
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Reality check - crypto fundraise valuations are too high
In the last few years you may have been able to get away with a "2 on 20" pre-seed with not much more than a pitch deck and wireframes, then follow that up 6-12 months later with a "5 on 50" seed round well before any true measure of pmf
I believe those days are over (for now)
The result of raising at these high vals is that teams are incentivized to TGE too soon at even higher vals which removes much of the liquid demand thus leaving very little upside post-TGE
The market has a way of finding the correct price over time and for many tok
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GateUser-f8c2c9f7vip:
Bull Run 🐂
Perps will not be a winner-take-all market
Just like TradFi brokerages, the market is large enough to support many players across regions and product specialities
It’s a fast growing pie so Hyperliquid can still crush it while others also do well
HYPE-5.2%
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Manifesting bullish vibes ahead of next week's visit to Abu Dhabi
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If you ever want to torture someone, add them to an email list where the unsubscribe link takes them to a login page that only works on MS Edge and has a super strict password requirement
[speaking from experience as someone who was just tortured]
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Relevant links:
Michael Howell on Bankless:
Michael Howell "Liquidity is Finally Falling"
Raoul Pal "2026 Crypto Narratives to Watch"
Raoul Pal "Crypto Bloodbath & Debt Dynamics"
Capital Flows "Shift in the Liquidity Cycle"
Capital Flows "The Storm is Coming"
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Tether FUD
BTC quantum FUD
Saylor FUD
Carry trade FUD
China FUD
Fed cut FUD
What else?
BTC-2.15%
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I use LLMs every day and consider myself quite an expert at prompting, so I get tremendously useful output
But I absolutely suck at image creation - I mean really bad, like all the images I try to prompt are terrible
What am I doing wrong fam?
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The best opportunities in crypto are likely to come on the liquid side now
With many new projects going down-only after TGE, the incentive is now lower for founders/devs to ditch the old project to start something new
Better to build traction at an existing liquid project
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Whoever did this is a diabolical sociopath
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The next McKinsey will be built by a tech entrepreneur who assembles a team of multi-modal agent analysts
*I say this as a proud McKinsey alum
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Be very careful believing the random accounts spewing FUD with the yen carry trade
Guarantee most of them have no idea what they’re talking about
Including me, which is why I won’t pretend to have a take
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Sam had to go and run his mouth and now the fate of world financial markets will be decided in 20 mins on whether we need more chips to power AI slop bots
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