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With Mr. Kevin Warsh becoming the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Mr. Chhugani argues that there is a "non-zero probability" that the US could become more closely linked with Bitcoin as an alternative sovereign asset — potentially even revaluing or replacing part of the gold reserves.

President Trump nominates Mr. Kevin Warsh for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed), which has triggered strong reactions in the market. With a hawkish stance on inflation control, Mr. Warsh has led investors to expect the USD to strengthen and real yields to rise.

The probability of a US government shutdown is 76.5%
According to Polymarket, there is a 76.5% chance that the US government will shut down if Congress does not pass the budget package in time. Currently, the $1.2 trillion budget package has been approved by the House of Representatives.
However, this bill still needs approval from the Senate before midnight on Friday, January 30.
If no agreement is reached, agencies such as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), FEMA, and TSA may have to suspend non-essential operations.

The alarming state of US public debt
In fiscal year 2025, the US public debt has increased to $37.64 trillion, approaching the $38 trillion mark. To put it in perspective, the U.S. public debt is higher than the combined GDP of China, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, and India combined. On average, each American citizen is "carrying" more than $110,000 in debt.

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep interest rates unchanged on January 28th after its first policy meeting of the year.
Following a two-day policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed on January 28th decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.5-3.75%. Ten members of the Board of Governors supported maintaining the rate, while two members opposed. The Fed's decision aligned with market expectations, Reuters reported.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its first policy meeting of 2026 on January 27-28. Additionally, four out of the seven companies in the Magnificent Seven group will release their financial reports.

Notable event schedule on January 27th regarding the stock market: Many companies announce earnings; new developments at VRE, VCG, FLC, GAS… and dividend payout schedules.
Worldwide, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its first policy meeting of 2026 on January 27 - 28/1.
Investors are almost certain that the Fed will keep interest rates within the 3.5% - 3.75% range. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is betting up to 97% that the Fed will not cut interest rates.

Fed goes to court, the market holds its breath: Who will control US interest rates?
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) today entered a crucial hearing session, which could set a notable precedent for the world's largest economy. At the US Supreme Court, justices will hear arguments in a case involving Ms. Lisa Cook – a Fed governor – who is opposing President Donald Trump's decision to seek to end her term on the Board of Governors.

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Happy 12th anniversary to Gate.io, always growing strong. Wishing the management team good health and lots of luck.

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