Defioasis

Venus has started to push Probable prediction markets, and it seems that the two have reached a cooperation. I wonder if Probable will also introduce interest-bearing features.
Another BSC prediction market, Predict Fun, earns interest on holdings by depositing funds into Venus – vUSDT.
Currently, Predict Fun has deposited about 5.85 million USD (equivalent to 231 million vUSDT) into Venus, accounting for approximately 40% of its total holdings.

On the first full trading day after the conclusion of the Double Egg event, Opinion trading users, trading volume, and trading fee contributions all experienced some decline.
Compared to the last full trading day of the event (January 3rd):
- Trading users decreased by 38.2%
- Trading volume decreased by 52.6%
- Trading fee contribution decreased by 31.1%
However, in terms of holdings, the changes are minimal, with inflows and outflows remaining within a reasonable range, maintaining at $115 million. This also indicates that after the significant incentives fade, the fundamental aspects become

Infinex public sale has been open for two days, only raising 12% of the target, just over 6 million USD…
This is good, Infinex TGE valuation has directly become the first choice for prediction market Predict Fun scoring and interaction.
In the past 24 hours, three different valuation event predictions of Infinex have occupied the top three spots in Predict Fun trading volume, accounting for over 60% of the platform's trading volume.
It is worth mentioning that the fourth largest trading volume event on Predict Fun is a prediction of Opinion TGE valuation, which is a straightforward business ba

Polymarket Builders weekly trading volume reaches a new high of $80 million, a 50% increase week-over-week.
This is mainly due to the efforts of industry leader betmoar, whose weekly trading volume reached $50 million, with the past two days' trading volume exceeding $10 million for two consecutive days.
Currently, Polymarket Builders has 80 members, but betmoar's approximately 60% market dominance remains difficult to shake, and product strength remains unmatched.

Opinion's Double Holiday Event is coming to an end
Over 48,000 new user addresses made their first transaction during the event, accounting for over 30% of Opinion's total users
Meanwhile, these new users conducted over 2.1 million transactions, representing 38.3% of the total transaction count
Let's see how the retention rate looks after the event ends🤔

On the first day of the new year, Opinion's fee revenue hit a new high of over $300,000 in a single day
Since the launch of the Opinion Christmas special event
- Daily traders consistently exceeded 45,000, with a Polymarket daily trader ratio of 45% : 55%
- Daily transaction count exceeded 250,000, with a cumulative transaction count surpassing 5 million
- The composition of trading volume has become more diversified. Taking January 1st as an example, the top three events by trading volume come from different sectors:
1. Sports - LOL: LCK 2026 Season Champion
2. Culture - Logan Paul’s “Pikachu

As a zero-fee platform, Probable's trading volume growth rate is faster than Predict Fun, accounting for approximately 10%–15% of the trading volume in the BNB Chain prediction market.
In terms of trading composition, Probable's trading volume is mainly driven by two markets:
1. Will BNB fall to $700
2 by December 31, 2025?
2. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?
Both of these events have significantly higher market trading volume and liquidity compared to other markets on the platform. As these two markets mature, everyone is curious about what they will choose to bet on next.
It

Among over 1.7 million Polymarket trading addresses, the proportion of addresses with realized profits is close to 30%; conversely, approximately 70% of trading addresses have realized losses.
A more sobering reality is that less than 0.04% of addresses have achieved over 70% of the total realized profits, with these top addresses accumulating a total realized profit of up to $3.7 billion.
The majority of profitable trading addresses have a profit range of $0 - $1,000, accounting for 24.56% of all addresses, but only capturing 0.86% of the total realized profits. To earn more than $1,000, one

Every weekend, I count the number of Polymarket Builders. Today, I saw that it has already exceeded 70, maintaining a weekly increase of 10-20 over the past few weeks; at the same time, the number has also surpassed the Hyperliquid Builders counted by Flowscan.
The increase in the number of Builders is gradually reflected in trading volume: Polymarket Builders' weekly trading volume has for the first time exceeded $50 million.
Now, the Builders landscape is quite clear: betmoar firmly holds half the market share; PolyTraderPro, Stand trade, and Polycule are competing for second place. Of cours

Opinion Daily and Japanese independent traders hit a new high, surpassing 42,000
At the same time, Opinion set a record for the highest share of Japanese traders on Polymarket, with a 4:6 opening ratio with Polymarket
There are 11 markets with over 1k+ traders, including 3 markets with over 5k+ traders:
1. US Fed Rate Decision
2. Will Satoshi transfer any Bitcoin in 2025?
3. Will Polymarket launch a token before…?

Opinion Not sure what to trade during the Christmas event? See what markets everyone is trading
Top 5 daily trading volumes:
1. US Fed Rate Decision
2. 2026 Premier League Champion
3. 2026 South Korean Local Elections: Party Winners
4. ECB Rates Decision (DFR)
5. COMEX Gold (Year-End)
Top 5 daily trading users:
1. US Fed Rate Decision
2. Will Polymarket launch a token before…?
3. Will Satoshi transfer any Bitcoin in 2025?
4. Will Kraken IPO in 2025?
5. Will USDT depeg in 2025?
Top 5 daily trading transactions:
1. US Fed Rate Decision
2. Will Kraken IPO in 2025?
3. Will Satoshi transfer any Bit

Christmas Points Event First Day
Opinion day traders reached 17,500, setting a historical second-high record, accounting for 23.2% of Polymarket's same-day traders.
The number of daily trades on Opinion reached 86,000, driving the daily trading volume of the BSC prediction market to break the 100,000 transaction barrier for the first time.
However, the number of transactions is a significant area where competitors differ from Polymarket and Kalshi, as the latter two can exceed one million transactions per day recently.

Open interest may be a better indicator of the influence of the prediction market, as it reflects the participants' risk-taking and capital commitment.
Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket together account for nearly 90% of the open interest share.
Of the remaining 10%, Opinion accounts for 8 points, and Predict Fun accounts for 1 point.
As a challenger, Predict Fun introduces the open interest earning feature, not sure if this will become a future industry standard🤔

BSC prediction market volume had the second highest single day, with Opinion accounting for 97.6% of the share.
The other two new platforms, Predict Fun and Probable, contributed 2.2 million dollars each, sharing the remaining 2.4% of the market.
Upon closer inspection, the fees for Predict Fun are not cheap, charging $450,000 over 5 days, with a fee of ~2% per transaction; Probable has zero fees; Opinion has an overall rate of ~0.12%, accumulating $5.7 million.

After the full release of registration for the Base app, over 21,000 users have flooded in over the past two days, accounting for more than 10% of the total.
As an important distribution channel for the Base web application, this super app built by Coinbase, which integrates social, trading, and exploration features, has nearly reached 200,000 total users.
However, the new users in the past two days have not yet converted into trading users on the Base app, and the built-in Swap trading volume remains relatively limited.

Polymarket Builders had the second-highest trading volume in a single day, exceeding $9.4 million.
Among them, Betmoar and PolyTraderPro account for 50% and 20% of the market share, respectively.
Unknowingly, Polymarket now has 50 Builders. It is expected that in another two or three weeks, their numbers will surpass Hyperliquid Builders.

Robinhood continues to expand the number of stock tokens, and a few days ago, it deployed 500 stock tokens on Arbitrum all at once.
Currently, the potential tradable stock tokens under its CFD trading model reach nearly 2,000, covering individual stocks, ETFs, commodities, and bonds.
Robinhood's stock token market capitalization is around $12.4 million, accounting for 2.2% of the tokenized stock market share, but unfortunately, on-chain trading is not supported.

Polymarket Builders continue to expand, with over 25 providers currently offering services. The weekly trading volume has exceeded $30 million for five consecutive weeks.
11 Builders have a cumulative trading volume of over $1 million, and 4 have over $10 million; 8 have more than 100 traders, and 3 have over 1,000 traders.
Interestingly, the social aggregation app Firefly has also integrated Polymarket, which might provide a reliable new revenue path for Web3 social. Wen Farcaster?
Additionally, Based, which has experienced success on Hyperliquid Builder, performs quite well. It is one of the

I heard from a friend that Solana Mobile is about to launch a token, and today I finally pulled out the Seeker that has been kept under wraps for several months to activate it.
Once the Seeker is activated, it will mint and receive an non-transferable SPL Token: Genesis Token. Since August of this year, over 95,000 Genesis Tokens have been minted, which should correspond to nearly 100,000 Seeker devices activated. Currently, about 200-500 new phones are activated daily.
Additionally, in recent days, the number of daily active device addresses has maintained between 8k and 9k (at least one tran

Unpretentious business warfare
It appears that DeFiLlama has completed halving Polymarket's daily trading volume.