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I don't necessarily think it's Europe's retaliatory tariffs. The main reason might still be the overall market expectations of rate cuts and concerns about increasing uncertainty.
1. The US Treasury yield curve has become steeper. The primary reason is that dovish Harker has explicitly not participated in the Federal Reserve Chair race, increasing the probability of hawkish Waller. Another piece of news is that the Treasury Department plans to reopen the 7-year Treasury auction. The concern in the bond market is that this could be a signal that the Treasury Department may increase long-term de

CPI is about to be announced, but overall, the impact is not significant. The main focus is on changes in food and housing.

These past few days, I took some time to write the USD series outlook for the new year. Understanding the currency itself is at the core of understanding the modern financial system. The main points are:
1. Currently, all transactions are conducted in fiat currency or based on fiat equivalents (such as stablecoins).
2. The rise and fall of all assets, on a larger scale, are changes in the numerator. If the denominator used as currency changes, then the nominal value will fluctuate more intensely.
3. Any newly created currency will not flow evenly into the financial system. Newly created funds

NotebookLm's improvement in learning efficiency is revolutionary. The fundamental reason is that you can choose the data source as the starting point for analysis.
In human learning models, the biggest bottleneck is input quality. Once the input quality is locked in, your interaction with AI essentially becomes a significant improvement in the thinking environment, making it obvious that your efficiency will increase exponentially.

When it rises too much, you sell; when it falls too much, you buy. That's just the way it is.
The only thing you might need to overcome in the middle is that maybe your buying or selling is on a slope, but at the same time, one thing to be firm about is that the act of printing money is an unstoppable primal urge for the entire world.
The long-term upward slope of currency won't change.

Let’s briefly talk about a few points:
1. Why has Trump recently shown greater tolerance towards hawks? The midterm elections in 2026 cannot afford to fail. So why this tolerance at this time?
2. I think December will still be a time for interest rate cuts.
3. In the American industry, relying on AI? But AI is currently insensitive to interest rates. So in the possibility of stagflation, is lowering interest rates a more realistic path?
4. The weakening of employment will continue until 2026.

1. The pause in QT is easy to understand; the repurchase interest rate is rising, and at the same time, reverse repos cannot hedge against balance sheet reduction. The combination of both leads to a pause. There is still a long way to go before the pause turns into point shaving.
2. The relationship between interest rate cuts and the market involves, on one hand, the magnitude of the cuts, and on the other, the pace of the cuts. The cuts in September and October are related to employment pressure; however, after the government shutdown, with data being unclear, there is naturally a motivation