BUDDATRADER

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🧱Gold bounced beautifully off the 200-day moving average.
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The last time it came this close to the 200-day (at the end of 2023), it then rose more than 100%.
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🔥 Latest indicators of business activity in Great Britain:
🇬🇧 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
51.4 (background 50.0/front 51.7)
🇬🇧 S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
51.2 (back 52.8/ front 53.9)
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🇮🇷Ships began transiting the Strait of Hormuz immediately after Iran announced it would cost $2 million.
— It appears shipping companies have agreed to this deal and paid Iran.
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⚠️🛢#oil
Goldman notes that there is growing evidence of a "collapse" in oil demand, particularly in Asia and in the jet fuel segment.
Morgan also says that at these price levels, the first signs of a "collapse" in oil demand are beginning to appear.
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⁉️HOW HIGH CAN GLOBAL INFLATION GO? ⨯ [The Economist]
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▶️ After peaking above 10% in late 2022, inflation fell to around 2% by early 2026. The problem seemed solved.
However, a new energy shock due to the conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices back up from $60 to ~$100 per barrel, increasing inflationary pressure.
▫️A global recession is still unlikely, but rising energy prices are already raising the cost of living and reducing consumer activity. At around $140 per barrel, an economic downturn is possible, but the current price rise is not yet as sharp as in pr
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📉🧱Silver is headed for its tenth consecutive decline, which would be its longest losing streak since April/May 2022.
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Bloomberg Terminal✅
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🇯🇵Japan's 10-year government bond yield jumped to 2.30%, reaching its highest level since 1999 and surpassing the peak of the 2008 financial crisis by 30 basis points.
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Bloomberg Terminal✅
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❗️Goldman Sachs: Prepare for a global surge in inflation.
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Bloomberg Terminal✅
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Kim Jong-un officially declared South Korea a hostile state to the DPRK, according to KCNA.
"We will make South Korea pay a merciless price for any actions that affect our republic, without the slightest consideration or hesitation."
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🇺🇸 Goldman Sachs predicts that due to the war with Iran, US economic growth will slow significantly below trend, and the unemployment rate will rise to approximately 4.6% in the baseline scenario and to 4.8-4.9% in the event of a more negative development of events.
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🔖WESTERN PEOPLE ARE LEAVING THEIR COUNTRIES IN RECORD NUMBERS.
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▶️ According to The Economist, approximately 4 million people emigrated from 31 Western countries in 2024—20% more than before the pandemic.
Emigration is growing among both foreigners and citizens of the countries themselves.
In New Zealand, it increased by 74% compared to 2019, Sweden (+60%), Canada (+34%), Ireland (+29%), and the United States (up to 3 million in 2025). Many young professionals with higher education are among the emigrants.
Reasons:
▫️Geographical arbitrage – the pandemic has shown that wor
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Well, where would we be without insiders 😁
As usual, before Trump makes resonant statements, like today's, someone "randomly" accumulates abnormal volumes in the direction the market then moves.
5 minutes before the post:
⚪️Someone buys S&P 500 futures (ES) in one large order for $1.5 billion;
⚪️Goes short oil (CL) for $192 million.
Therefore, such manipulations are not only a way for Trump's circle to calm the markets, but also an excellent opportunity to profit.
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🥇 Gold has entered a bear market, falling more than 20% from its all-time high.
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The roots of military and economic power are once again shifting from software and information to conventional resources.
The Iranian conflict is a good illustration of this shift. Oil is once again becoming not just a tool of pressure, but a fully-fledged weapon and part of the geopolitical struggle, not just a raw material. This is a signal that competition between countries is increasingly returning to the basics—control over the energy resources that underpin economies.
For countries that lack access to such resources, the risks are only growing: from surges in inflation and economic probl
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⚠️🇮🇷#iran #geopolitics
The likelihood of reaching an Iran deal remains very low, according to an Israeli official — Channel 12
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🙂 Interesting facts about Donnie's "peacemaking":
1️⃣ Trump's new ultimatum is coming up in 5 days - right at the time the markets are closing.
2️⃣ At the same time, in 5 days the USS Tripoli with 2,200 marines will already be in position.
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🛢🇺🇸 The US is a net exporter of petroleum products and total liquid hydrocarbons, but remains a net importer of crude oil, - Goldman Sachs.
🗣 Meanwhile, Trump: "We don't need oil."
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The US and Iran could hold talks as early as this week, Israeli officials say.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷An Israeli official said negotiators are trying to arrange a meeting in Islamabad as early as this week, where the Iranian delegation will be led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and the US could include Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and possibly J.D. Vance. ⨯ [Axios]
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Bloomberg✅
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🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷According to Axios: A senior Israeli official said Israel was surprised by Trump's assertion that the talks were progressing well and that a 15-point agreement had been reached.
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"We didn't know things were moving so fast."
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Bloomberg✅
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